A report from the Computer Industry Almanac (link via Infinite Loop) predicts that Apple could double its sales over the next five years, but that because of the dynamics of the technology industry, even such a drastic increase would only move its market share from 2.1 percent to 2.5 percent.
“I think there’s a math error in there,” said Adam Engst.
“I mean, think of it. If Apple doubles their sales, they’d have to double their market share. That’s totally obvious, isn’t it? See, it’s not just me, right?”
Engst’s analysis was echoed across the Macintosh community.
“They’re way off,” said Macworld magazine editor Jason Snell. “By my calculations, based on current switcher rates, Apple will have, like, nine hundred gajillion users by 2010. That works out to 230 percent of the market.
“That’s a… rough estimate. Could be more, though. Could be a bazillion.”
Mac user Mike Bainter was more direct.
“Oh, c’mon!” Bainter screamed at his screen. “It’s got to be higher than that!
“I’m sorry, I’ve just invested a lot emotionally in this company, you know?
“Man, does that sound weird every time it comes out of my mouth.”
Apple declined to reveal its internal projections for sales over the next five years, despite repeated begging, whining and refusal to let go of their leg.